Methodology & Data Provenance

Opacity destroys trust with operators. Every figure in this platform is listed below with its actual source and its limitations. Where a number is modelled rather than measured, it says so. If a metric here disagrees with your own AIS screen or terminal data, trust your data, not ours — and tell us, because that is a bug.

A pure weighted average treats the four inputs as substitutable, which understates a chokepoint crisis — a full blockade could otherwise be diluted by moderate port or insurance readings. Because an armed action or blockade in the strait is a dominant, non-substitutable risk, the composite is floored into the band that geopolitical state implies: high → ≥70, critical → ≥82, blockade → ≥90. Calm and elevated states carry no floor, so the honest weighted average governs and the index is never permanently inflated — when the corridor de-escalates, the score falls with it.

These bands were re-calibrated in v1.1 so that mid-range scores are not over-labelled: a reading in the 60s reads as High Disruption, not "Extreme." The scale is an index, not a measured quantity — publish a back-test before citing it in a risk decision.